Check this book! ///
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Debunking the
Kelly criterion /// Be sure to check these other pages: R. J. Miller on Money Management BOB McCUNE on Betting Baseball ///
/// A Crash Course In
Vigorish |
What people think of us sometimes depends on when they track our results. /// We receive many emails asking about our won/lost record in Professional Gambler Newsletter. We've decided the topic needs an entire page of its own. (Frankly we're tired of answering the same questions over and over.) Here's our policy: (1) We list every pick published in our newsletter at our Track Us page immediately after the game goes off. You don't have to rely on (or pay!) any sort of 'monitoring' service; you can track us yourself simply by checking the Track Us page every few days. We always leave picks posted for several days. (2) We post every pick in PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER Newsletter - NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, and an occasional odd pick, such as boxing, soccer, college sports, etc. If it's in the newsletter, we post it. With that said, here's our problem: Even though we post every pick every day, and leave them posted for several days to include a minimum of our latest 25-30 or more picks, we still get requests to furnish all manner of our won/lost records. Some people want us to separate our results by sport; such as, "What are your results in baseball for the last year...(or for the last 2 years...or 3 years, etc.)?" or "What was your record against NBA pointspreads for last month, not including totals...(or 2 years...or 3 years, etc.)?" or "What's your record against pro football last year...(or so far this year...or for the last 2 years, etc.)?" Other people ask for breakdowns by pointspreads v. totals, such as, "What's your record against NBA totals for the last 3 years?" or "I'm not interested in baseball totals; - what's your record just against baseball money lines for the last 2 years?" or even, "What's your record against NFL Overs compared to your record against NFL Unders?" And, of course, "What's your record since last March?...Or since last November?...Or so far this year?, etc.?" We've had requests for our records against only the NFL exhibition season, or for only the NFL playoff season, or for only the NBA playoff season, or for baseball during only specific months, such as, "What's your record against baseball in April for the last 3 years?" In fact, check this from an actual letter: "...I'm thinking of becoming a full time sports bettor. Send me whatever research you have..." The bottom line is, for one thing, it's not a good idea for you to believe what a sports service says about their past records, anyway. Always make 'em PROVE it, like we do every day at our Track Us page. We invite you to monitor us. Please feel free to track whatever results you like for as long as you like.....However, we'll leave it to you to choose what to track and what to separate in whatever manner you see fit. In other words, we'll post the picks, but you sort them in whatever special way you want. It's too expensive and time-consuming for us to look up the answers and build replies to all the emails concerning our past record(s). Please keep reading.... One important point we'd like to make is, as professionals our ONLY interest is in making money. That's NOT the same as achieving a high winning percentage. To amateurs, that last sentence doesn't make sense. After all, the higher the winning percentage, the more money we make...Right? No, not at all.....That's a myth. For example, we would gladly win only 40% of our picks if we were getting +200 on every pick. That would give us a profit of 20 betting units for every 100 bets we made, and that would be roughly equal to winning more than 62% of bets if we were risking 11 to win ten. To illustrate, when we like a small NBA underdog, we often take the moneyline rather than the pointspread. This obviously lowers our win percentage, but it usually returns more PROFIT over the long haul. For another illustration, one in 5 NHL hockey games ends in a tie, so using the puckline when betting on hockey underdogs naturally returns a higher winning percentage than using the moneyline. Trouble is, the puckline often does not offer as much VALUE. The moneyline often returns more VALUE. Using the moneyline with 5 NHL underdogs getting +120, and going 4-0-1, produces a gross profit of 480 units (4 X 120). Using the puckline @ +0.5 -120 on those same 5 bets - in this case, 5 winners - returns a gross profit of only 417 units (5 X 83.33). Obviously, using the puckline when betting on hockey underdogs is not generally a good idea. (See? You've learned something already!) Notice, however, that although taking the moneyline on underdogs will dramatically increase your profits, it will also dramatically decrease your winning percentage. Betting on NHL favorites is wholly different. Going 4-1 on the puckline with favorites at -0.5 +120 produces a gross profit of 380 units (480 won and 100 lost). Using the moneyline on those same 5 favorites at -120 (and going 4-0-1) returns a gross profit of only 334 units. It's plain to see that laying the half-puck is generally a good idea when betting on NHL favorites. Here, too, however, you are intentionally reducing your winning percentage in order to increase your profit. Remember, we are after nothing but PROFIT, and that is NOT always synonymous with a high winning percentage. To further illustrate the point, directly below this paragraph is a series of actual hockey picks we had on January 24th, 2001, as published on our Track Us page. Notice we went 5-3 (62.5%), but that we actually won 3.4 betting units...
In order to win 3.4 net betting units over 8 bets when risking $100 to win $91, one has to win 6 bets out of 8; - not five. Going 6-2 is a winning percentage of 75 percent. Consequently, in the above 8 hockey picks, we made a profit approximately EQUAL TO 75% against so-called '11-10' odds. This circumstance eventually leads a professional-level gambler to virtually ignore his winning percentage. After all, who cares if you win 90% of your bets if you're laying 10-to-1 on favorites? The fact is, it ain't about winning percentages; - it's about PROFIT. Keep watching the LEFT column on our Track Us page. - J. R. Miller (Our thanks to Peter Ruchman at GAMBLER'S BOOK CLUB in Las Vegas for his help with this article.) /// |
