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Debunking the Kelly criterion  
If you think progressive betting schemes can win more than you deserve, buy a round-trip ticket in advance

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"WHAT'S YOUR RECORD?"

What people think of us sometimes depends on when they track our results.

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We receive many emails asking about our won/lost record in Professional Gambler Newsletter. We've decided the topic needs an entire page of its own. (Frankly we're tired of answering the same questions over and over.) Here's our policy:

We list every pick published in our newsletter at our Track Us page immediately after the game starts....Not AFTER it's over, but as soon as it starts. You don't have to rely on (or pay!) any sort of 'monitoring' service; you can track us yourself simply by checking the Track Us page.

With that said, here's our problem: Even though we post every pick every day, we still get requests to furnish all manner of records. We get asked to separate results by sport; such as, "What are your results in baseball last year...or the last 2 years...or 3 years, etc.?" or "What was your record against NBA pointspreads the last 3 months, not including totals...or during the playoffs...or for 1,000 bets, etc.?" or "What's your record against pro football the last 5 years...or during the last 5 Septembers...or for the exhibition season, etc.?"

We get asked for breakdowns by pointspreads v. totals, such as, "What's your record against NBA totals the last 3 years?" or "I'm don't bet on baseball totals; - what's your record against baseball money lines for the last 2 years?" or even, "What's your record against NFL Overs compared to NFL Unders?" And, of course, "What's your record since last March?...Or since last November?...Or so far this year?, etc.?"

In fact, check this from an actual letter: "...I'm thinking of becoming a full time sports bettor. Send me whatever research you have..."

The bottom line is, for one thing,  it's not a good idea to believe what a sports service says about their past records. Always make 'em PROVE it, like we do every day at our Track Us  page. We invite you to monitor us. Please feel free to track whatever results you like for as long as you like.....However, we'll leave it to you to choose what to track and what to separate in whatever manner you see fit. In other words, we'll post the picks, but you sort them in whatever special way you want.  It's too time-consuming for us to look up the answers and build replies to all the emails concerning our past records. 

Please keep reading....

One important point we'd like to make is, as professionals our ONLY interest is in making money. That's NOT the same as achieving a high winning percentage.

To non-pros, that last sentence doesn't make sense. After all, the higher the winning percentage, the more money we make...Right?

No.....That's a myth. For example, we would gladly win only 40% of our picks if we were getting +200 on every pick. That would give us a profit of 20 betting units for every 100 bets made, and that would be roughly equal to winning more than 62% of bets if we were risking 11 to win ten.

.....Or consider this: Going 3-2 for a day gives you 60% winners and a net profit of 0.73 betting units. Going 8-6 gives you only 57% winners, but produces 1.28 units of profit.

When we like a small NBA underdog, for example, we often take the moneyline rather than the pointspread. This obviously lowers our win percentage, but it usually returns more PROFIT over the long haul.

For another illustration, one in 5 NHL hockey games ends in a tie, so using the puckline when betting on hockey underdogs naturally returns a higher winning percentage than using the moneyline. Trouble is, the puckline often does not offer as much VALUE. The moneyline often returns more VALUE. Using the moneyline with 5 NHL underdogs getting +120, and going 4-0-1, produces a gross profit of 480 units (4 X 120). Using the puckline @ +0.5 -120 on those same 5 bets - in this case, 5 winners - returns a gross profit of only 417 units (5 X 83.33).

Obviously, using the puckline when betting on hockey underdogs is not generally a good idea. (See? You've learned something already!) Notice, however, that although taking the moneyline on underdogs will dramatically increase your profits, it will also dramatically decrease your winning percentage.

Betting on NHL favorites is wholly different. Going 4-1 on the puckline with favorites at -0.5 +120 produces a gross profit of 380 units (480 won and 100 lost). Using the moneyline on those same 5 favorites at -120 (and going 4-0-1) returns a gross profit of only 334 units. It's plain to see that laying the half-puck is generally a good idea when betting on NHL favorites. Here, too, however, you are intentionally reducing your winning percentage in order to increase your profit. Remember, we are after nothing but PROFIT, and that is NOT always synonymous with a high winning percentage. 

This circumstance eventually leads a professional-level gambler to virtually ignore his winning percentage. After all, who cares if you win 90% of your bets if you're laying 10-to-1 on favorites? The fact is, it ain't about winning percentages; - it's about PROFIT. Keep watching the LEFT column on our Track Us page.

- J. R. Miller

(Our thanks to Peter Ruchman at GAMBLER'S BOOK CLUB in Las Vegas for his help with this article.)

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