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Sunday, November 27, 2016
-110 @ Buffalo
Arizona @ Atlanta -4 -110
New England @ NY Jets OVER 47 -110
Green Bay +3.5/4
-110 @ Philadelphia
@ Eagles: In recent weeks I talked about my “now power” ranking, which I
credit for winning six out of eight bets against the Packers – and eleven
out of sixteen on the Eagles. So it may come as a surprise that this
would be a selection. Overall ability of a team is not always an accurate
indicator of which team will win today. Sometimes you lose a few battles
even though you win the war. A good handicapper must know when to
Carolina +4 -105 @
Green Bay +3.5/4
-110 @ PhiladelphiaSee
Cleveland @ Philadelphia +12.5 -110
This selection has value written all over it. A
Sunday in November sees more square action in all sports than the rest of
the week combined. Sports fans and hobby bettors reliably pick the most
popular/famous teams; favorites; and overs. The scale is tipped in our favor.
To Joe Bettor, this proposition is a no-brainer. Cleveland is 12-2, and
they won their last 3. The 76ers are 4-12 and lost their last game. Joe
Bettor researches some things and determines there is no reason to
believe either team will change course. And we couldn’t agree more. I
fully expect Cleveland to win - and not cover. The 76ers are 9-7 ATS and
the Cavs 6-7. Philadelphia wins 3 out of 4 games at home ATS. How many do
they win straight up? I don’t know…I didn’t look…I don’t care. Cleveland
will win this game by about 6.
Milwaukee @ Orlando +1 -110
We’ve Got Mail
Real mail from subscribers,
friends, fans, critics, competitors and enemies.
“Dear JV, I love your website
and your honest approach to sports betting. I am learning a lot and
making great money. Keep it up.” – K.W. Boston, MA
“Dear JV, What if I doubled my
bet every time I lost until I won? Then I’d start all over at one unit
and do it again. I could never lose. Right?” – G.L., Pasadena, CA
Wrong. All progressive betting schemes end in the player going
bust. You describe the classic Martingale system. On paper it seems to
work, but in reality you are not able to keep doubling your bets.
Eventually you will lose three, four, or more (maybe a lot more) in a row
and bump up against betting limits. Also, you’d be surprised how fast the
bet size grows when it is increasing exponentially.
“Hi JV! There is not one…not one single handicapper who
does what you do. NOBODY posts their plays and results like you.”
I wonder why that is? What’s more puzzling is why someone would do
business with a service that hides its results. Obviously, they don’t
have a winning record, or they would shout it from the rooftop.
“Hello JV, I have a question
about handicapping MLB. I understand WHIP and ERA. Some say they
correlate and some say they do not. I’m confused.” - Michael S. –Atlanta, GA
Those who say ERA and WHIP do not
correlate are probably not using the term correctly. WHIP and ERA do not have a causal relationship. They are completely independent of the
other. This makes sense because they measure different things. To
correlate, in mathematics, implies only a common resemblance. In other
words, where you find one you usually
find the other – but not always and not by rule. They definitely
“JV, Your website is great. Is
a 5% unit too high for very high expectation bets? Everyone has an
opinion on this. I’ll just take your advice and call it a day.” - J. I., London, England
Your bet size should not exceed two percent of your bankroll. Most
professional-level sports bettors use a one-percent unit. Grasping the
concept of “expectation” can be tricky.
Please be aware that, unless the game is fixed, you never have
greater than a 55-58% expectation.
In other words, you cannot handicap your own handicapping. A
mathematical ceiling exists. Your confidence level does not improve this.
Also, buying off a hook or buying points does not improve this. This is
one reason the ‘star’ betting system does not work.
Thank you very much for your business. Good luck. – JV
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