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A GOOD HANDICAPPER...BANKRUPT There's more to sports betting than calling winners /// The first book I ever read on sports betting was in 1983. I still think it was among the best book on handicapping pro football games. I still use some of the handicapping philosophies I learned from that book. There's never been a doubt in my mind that the author really knew his stuff when picking winners. It was one of those books that give you eye-opening revelations. Trouble was, even though the advice on handicapping was excellent, the advice on money management was absolutely crazy. And I mean crazy. For example, one of the things this fellow wrote was that if you begin the NFL season betting $50 per bet, and if you can call 60% winners, you can be betting $500 per bet by the time the playoffs come around. Whew! This guy must have spent 99% of his time learning to handicap and 1% learning acceptable money management. Never mind the name of the book or the name of the author. There's no reason to embarrass him here. You will understand why we're reluctant to mention his name when we get to the end of this story. .....And to jump right to the end of the story, in the late 1990's - 15 years after reading this man's excellent work on handicapping - I was at the Gambler's Book Shop in Las Vegas and I asked someone about him. I wondered if he'd written any more books, or what had become of him. I was told he was waiting tables in a downtown Las Vegas restaurant. His naive ideas concerning money management had obviously ruined whatever chances he had of prospering. His ignorance of the dynamics of binomial distribution had ruined him. There's no telling how many men succeeded at sports betting with the help of this fellow's book - including me - but he wasn't one of them. While others got rich with the help of this man's handicapping advice, he himself ended up waiting tables. It's a sad story. I absolutely guarantee you, correct money management is essential to your success. Without it you are lost. Correct money management is every bit as important as being able to predict winners. The most important thing a beginning gambler can learn from me is this: The size of your bets cannot be used as a pry-bar to make more than you deserve. Forget such stupid advice as using the "1-star, 2-star, 3-star" system, or the deadly "Kelly criterion." Such betting schemes are nothing more than distant relatives of the old Martingale system, in which you keep doubling up until you finally win a bet. They are a one-way ticket to Tap City. Ask yourself this: Is the guy touting a progressive betting scheme rich? The answer to that question should give you a clue. There are several articles on this website concerning money management, written by different successful sports bettors. You can find them on our Index page. Be sure to read them. - J. R. Miller |
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