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A GOOD HANDICAPPER...BANKRUPT There's more to sports betting than calling winners /// The first book I ever read on sports betting was in 1983. The handicapping information in that book on pro football is among the best ever written. I still use some of the philosophies in that book. There's never been a doubt in my mind that the author really knew his stuff when picking football winners. Trouble was, even though the author’s advice on handicapping was excellent, his advice on money management was absolutely suicidal…..And I do mean suicidal. One of the things this fellow advised was, if you begin the NFL season risking $50 per bet, and if you can call 60% winners, you can be risking $500 per bet by the time the playoffs come around. …..Whew! This man must have spent 100% of his time learning to handicap and no time at all understanding money management. Never mind the name of the book or the name of the author. There's no reason to embarrass him here. You will see why we're reluctant to mention his name when we get to the end of this story. .....And to jump right to the end of the story, in the late 1990's – 15 years after reading this man's book – I was at the Gambler's Book Shop in Las Vegas. I was there signing my own new book, How Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread. The manager of Gambler’s Book Shop, Howard Schwartz, was an integral part of my book’s success. During the course of my book-signing event, I asked someone about the author who’d done so much for me. I wondered what became of him, is he still beating hell out of sports? …..As it turned out, he still lived in Las Vegas. He was a server, waiting tables in a downtown restaurant. The man’s ideas concerning money management had obviously ruined his sports betting career. His ignorance of the dynamics of binomial distribution had wrecked him. There's no telling how many men he helped with his book - including me - but he, himself, wasn't one of them. While others got rich with the help of his handicapping advice, he ended up waiting tables. It's a sad story. I can guarantee you that acceptable money management is essential to success. It is every bit as important as being able to predict winners. One of the most important things a beginning gambler can learn from me is this: The size of your bets cannot be used as a pry-bar to make more profit than you deserve, nor to catch up when you’re behind. I don’t expect most beginners to believe that last sentence. Just remember where you found this article.....You’ll be back. To win at sports betting over the long haul, you must keep your bets ‘flat’. Successful sports bettors rarely “jiggle” the size of their bets. You can’t go wrong with this advice: If you’ve got $1,000 tucked in your sock drawer to risk on sports betting, risk no more than $20 (2 percent) per bet, and don’t keep moving the size of your bets. Keep risking $20 until your stash grows to $1500 or shrinks to $500, then readjust your bet to 2% again. Forget such silliness as a "1-star, 2-star, 3-star" system, or the deadly "Kelly criterion," or any other progressive betting system. Progressive betting systems – all progressive betting systems – are nothing but relatives of the old Martingale system, which is the granddaddy of them all. In the Martingale betting system, after you lose a bet you’re supposed to double the size of the next bet, and keep doubling until you finally win a bet. When you do finally win, of course, you’ll end up with a profit of one unit. Then, the plan is to start over with your basic single bet size. According to the Martingale system, so long as you finally do win one more bet before you die, you can’t lose….Nothing can possibly go wronk,wronk,wronk,wronk...... There are several articles on this website concerning money management, written by different successful sports bettors. You can find them on our Index page. Be sure to read them. - J. R. Miller /// |
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