NBA = $$$

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NBA = $$$

Of the two, basketball - not football - is the 'bread-and-butter' sport for professional gamblers

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While football has traditionally accounted for more than 40 percent of the money risked with bookmakers, most professional-level sports bettors will confirm that basketball - not football - is actually the "bread-and-butter" sport of the two. In the National Basketball Association, after all, there are almost four times as many betting opportunities as in the National Football League. In essence, every day is 'Sunday.' Games go off virtually every day. Along with pro baseball and pro hockey - and college games - the more than 2,400 NBA propositions (including sides and totals) make up a big part of a professional handicapper’s action.

The general betting public prefers football for several different reasons. One of the reasons must surely be that basketball action comes very fast. Pro football 'happens' once a week, which gives part-timers enough time to develop an interest in the next games. On the other hand, pro basketball is played every day, so do-it-yourself part-time gamblers can easily fall behind in their record-keeping. With so many games coming so quickly, it is very difficult to keep abreast of the stats and injuries and myriad subjective factors that influence each and every game.

Nevertheless, make no mistake about it, most any professional-level handicapper will tell you that pro basketball is easier to beat than pro football, and there is plenty of evidence to substantiate that claim. Check this quote from Las Vegas linemaker and ex-professional gambler Roxy Roxborough:

"If I were still a professional gambler I wouldn't play NFL football...For starters, there aren't enough games. So trend analysis, which was one thing I was big on, is pointless. Second, you can't turn your money over fast enough to get a reasonable rate of return because you only get to choose from 14 or 15 games a week and each team only plays 16 games. I just never saw pro football as being a viable betting opportunity. That's why most pros end up in what they call linear sports, sports such as baseball and pro basketball."

With bookmakers throughout the world the rules concerning betting on pro basketball can be quite different than the rules concerning betting on pro football. The reason is, they get a disproportionate amount of winning bettors compared to the NFL. For example, some bookmakers will not allow parlays on sides and totals of the same NBA game. Others will not allow parlaying NBA totals at all, and betting limits are generally much smaller on NBA bets than NFL bets. These different standards are the result of bookmakers taking defensive action against sharp bettors.

Over the years our own percentage of wins against the NBA is roughly the same as our record against the NFL - between 55 and 58 percent winners. That seems to be about average for most other pro gamblers. However, that does not mean that the NBA is not easier to beat than the NFL. The fact that we have more plays over 100 NBA games than we do over 100 NFL games indicates that the NBA is, indeed, 'easier' to beat.

That may seem like a contradiction, saying the NBA is easier to beat than the NFL even though our winning percentage is about the same. To inexperienced gamblers, if the NBA is easier to beat, it naturally seems like we should be winning a higher percentage of our bets. That’s not the case, and here’s why: Genuine pros will tell you that a long term winning percentage of, say, 60 percent or more, is actually too high. It means you would not be taking advantage of all the opportunities being presented. Although there are situations that do occasionally offer a 60% (or more) probability of winning, such opportunities are relatively few and far between. With the break-even factor at about 53% when risking 11 to win 10, where is the wisdom in not pulling the trigger at 55%, 56%, 57%? There are relatively many more propositions offering between 55% and 58% winners than those which offer 59% or higher probabilities. Consequently, the fact that the NBA is "easier to beat" does not translate into a higher winning percentage, nor should it; - it simply results in relatively more opinions...More 'bets-per-game.' Remember, the whole idea is not to rack up a big winning percentage; the whole idea is to make as much profit as possible.

"Remember, the whole idea is not to rack up a big winning percentage; the whole idea is to make as much profit as possible."

Consider casino craps as an analogy. The house's edge against a sharp craps player is only slightly more than one percent, and yet they advertise those craps games in signs 100 feet tall. The reason is, they want all the bets they can get. The bosses know that the object is to wear down the players by using every possible advantage as often as possible.

In an average year against the 600 NFL sides and totals (including exhibition season) wherein we have enough information to form an opinion, we average about 230 opinions. That’s about 37% of the time. Against the 2100-or-so NBA sides and totals wherein we feel comfortable forming an opinion, we have upwards of 800 opinions. That’s about 40% of the time.

Note that with more than 800 opinions against the NBA and only about 230 opinions against the NFL, a single year of betting against the NBA equals more than three NFL years. Once one understands the overall situation, it’s not hard to understand why the NBA is much more important to a professional gambler’s bottom line than the NFL.

Most pro bettors won’t be at full speed until there are a dozen or so "regular-season" games in the can. However, there are certain subjective factors that can contribute to a valid opinion, even very early in the going, before stats can give you a starting point. During these early games we suggest you consider these points:

1. Younger teams tend to do better than older teams. The aging veterans of the league do not figure to have kept up their body-building regimen during the long layoff; - at least, not as well as rookies and 2nd-year men. Basketball requires extreme durability. It doesn’t take long for too many Big Macs to effect a basketball player’s performance.

2. Early-season games figure to be lower scoring than many people expect. For all the same reasons we think younger teams will do better than older teams, the average early game will tend to be lower scoring than games later in the year. With all the extra calories on the court, look for a lot of second-stringers to get plenty of playing time, and expect games to slow down, especially late in the second half.

3. Teams with the most new starters figure to make the most mistakes. Those teams returning with the most players from last year will tend to do better than teams with a lot of new faces, - especially in the early going. Sometimes, teams with lot of new players can almost be regarded as expansion teams, and their record from last year must be ignored. Those teams with the most new starters figure to take the longest to get into sync, therefore they figure to make the most mistakes in the early going.

There are other more specific subjective factors that apply to individual teams, of course, but the above three principles generally apply to the league as a whole. Keep in mind, too, that early stats figure to be very unreliable, and last year’s stats can be pretty much forgotten. If you use stats in your predictions, begin a new database after the regular season begins. Don’t use stats from exhibition games, and be especially careful when mixing home stats with visiting stats.

--J. R. Miller