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ProfessionalGambler.com Sports betting as a business.


 

 



 


In a nutshell:
With sports betting you don't wait for weeks or months to know if your investment was successful. You get an answer in about three hours.

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J.R. Miller

For the Miller Family, sports betting is a family affair.
 

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Take a look at the Order Page. The 'how-to' materials available there are by the most respected sports handicappers in the business. What you can learn from these men can be every bit as valuable as the best college education.


 
 



HOW TO SPOT WINNNING BETTORS

There are key differences between successful sports bettors and smoke-blowers.

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I don't know what you do for a living or what your favorite hobby might be, but chances are there is something at which you are very, very good. Maybe you're an excellent chess player, or horseshoe pitcher, or furniture salesman, carpenter, upholsterer, cook...whatever. There is something at which you have become very skilled...Right?

Right.

...And chances are, if a stranger tells you he is also very good at your special thing, it will take you....oh....about a minute and a half to figure out whether he's lying ...Right?

 Right.

How can you do that? You can do it by listening to the guy. If he's claiming to be a good chess player and says something like, "The knights are more valuable to me than the rooks," you'll know you've got yourself a ringer. If you're a good cook, and this guy says he bakes biscuits at 200 degrees, you know this guy doesn't know biscuits from baloney. Sooner or later, phonies always give themselves away.

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It's the same with gambling. If you're a good blackjack player you'll spot a know-nothing when he fails to split a pair of 9's against a dealer's 9, or when he fails to hit a 16 against a dealer's 10 against a negative deck, or when he splits a pair of 6's against a dealer's 10, or whatever...Lots of screw-ups go unnoticed by novices, but they stand out like blinking lights to experts.

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...And it's no different with sports betting. Full time sports bettors can spot a non-expert very quickly. The most obvious giveaway is that phonies tend to make outrageous claims. If a guy tells you he wins 65% of his pointspread bets, offer to lay 11 to his 10 that he won't win 65% of his next 20, or 50, or 500 - or whatever - bets. That's the closest you'll ever come to getting a 'lock' bet. (Better have an honest third party hold the money, though.)   

Another dead giveaway concerns money management.  Pseudo-experts usually think they can use the size of their bets as some sort of pry-bar; that is, they are convinced they can make more money than they deserve by using a progressive betting scheme. Quite often, in fact, usually these progressive betting schemes seem to make perfect sense on paper. You're probably already at least somewhat familiar with two such ideas, the so-called 'Kelly criterion' and the 'star system.'

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...But this article isn't about money management, it's about handicapping techniques and the differences between the way winners and losers handicap ball games.

There are only three general ways to handicap a football, basketball, hockey or baseball game:

        1. Get a hunch, bet a bunch

        2. Use stats from recent games in some sort of mathematical formula

        3. Judge the motivational and psychological factors affecting the teams

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Most recreational bettors use only the first method, and we can dismiss hunch betting without a lot of time talking about it. Those corpses you've been stepping over to get to the ticket window are mostly hunch-bettors.

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More serious gamblers usually use either the second method (stats) or the third method (motivations).

There are lots of statistical handicappers. These fellows sometimes have goatees and pocket protectors, and often use words like "yards-per-point," "megabytes" and "spreadsheet." A psychologist might say that hard core statisticians have a need for the solid feel of the predictions which their mathematical formulas produce. In a strange way, the use of a mathematical formula can relieve users of the responsibility of losing. Mathematical formulas can also relieve handicappers of the obligation to think for themselves; - to make judgments. Many statisticians don't trust judgments. They want solid evidence in black-and-white. They refuse to consider things like revenge, injuries, emotional letdowns, or other non-mathematical evidence. The ethereal, intangible quality of such subjective considerations seems to make them uncomfortable.

Subjective handicappers are the psychologists among us. These fellows see a football or basketball game as a highly emotional affair, usually won by the team best prepared on a psychological level. They are convinced that whichever team is most motivated figures to cover the pointspread. Their forecasts come from such factors as 'must-win' situations, revenge, intra-team squabbling, player holdouts, injuries, all manner of outside distractions or other emotional and subjective considerations that cannot be defined by numbers. So far as these fellows are concerned, stats are merely a reflection of past subjective factors. A hard core subjectivist can be contemptuous of the unbending, dictatorial aspects of mathematical systems.

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So who's right, - statisticians or psychologists?

Well, they both are, part of the time. I have never met a successful handicapper who was not both a statistician and a psychologist. That’s a winning bettor.  That's not nearly as easy as it may sound. People are predisposed to be either a statistician or a psychologist. Very few people can be both at the same time. Most people find it extremely difficult - even impossible - to mix mathematical formulas with judgmental considerations. It's a left-brain/right-brain thing. It involves both the logical/spatial/mathematical parts of our brain, and the creative/artistic/subjective parts.

Those two don't mix well.

 

Related articles:

A Crash Course in Vigorish

A Good Handicapper...Broke

Binomial Distribution & You

 

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© This is a SECURE site. Use your credit card with confidence at our ORDER Page.  We do not tele-market, nor do we sell, trade, rent or otherwise reveal customers' identities to anyone. You don’t have to “log in” and there's nothing to join.  DISCLAIMER:  This material is intended for informational purposes only and not to be construed as an inducement to gamble.  You must be 21 years of age to use this site. Information contained at this site is for news, entertainment & amusement purposes only. Any use of this information in violation of any federal, state and or local laws is prohibited. If you think you have a gambling problem click HERE to visit the Gamblers Anonymous website. ©All material on this site is protected by United States copyright laws. All rights reserved. Written permission must be secured from the publisher to use or reproduce any part of this material. "ProfessionalGambler.com" is a registered trademark of Flying M Group