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Today's
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Sample newsletter |
WHY I SUCCEED AT SPORTS BETTING AND SO CAN YOU Once you understand how sports betting works, it's obvious you can win. /// by R.J.
Miller My initial discovery that the better
team usually wins the game and that the linemaker was very good at setting the number was
the key to my becoming involved in this business. In essence, I, as a handicapper, and the linemaker are trying to do two different things. Because of his limitations concerning public opinion and some other ‘handicaps’ he must deal with, it opens up positive opportunities for the me as a player. That is what I’ve been able to study, using my databases and my statistics background. I have stats on professional football, baseball, basketball and hockey from as far back as 1984, and stats of college sports from 1989. I keep all stats, including posted pointspreads and totals. From these stats, I can search outcomes
that are statistically important. I need what I call ‘large universes’. If
something happened only 20 or 30 times, I don’t care about the outcome. I need 300
instances of the same situation. I can get that by using team categories instead of team
names. I use line categories instead of all games played. I separate all stats into home
and away. Thus, the Lakers road team could play the Lakers home team and I can set a line.
By doing this, I automatically take into account a home field advantage. These can and do
vary greatly between teams and sports and even months. Speaking of months, the positive
categories certainly change as a season progresses. College Basketball betting in December
bears little resemblance to February. The totals on NBA in November are a completely
different set of ‘Commands’ than in April.
Because Sports Betting is different from other forms of gambling, you can gain and keep an advantage. In Sports Betting, large bookmakers merely act as brokers; they have no vested interest in the outcome of the game. My 'opponent' is not the bookmaker but the player betting on the other side. I realized years ago that if I spent full time (for 15+ years) and he spent 10 minutes that morning reading the sports page, I would have an undeniable edge. I am what is known in Las Vegas as a ‘grinder’. I have over 2,000 plays a year on all sports. I play, simply put, 1.1% of my bankroll on each play to win 1 percent; - that is, 1.1 'units' to win 1 unit. Thus, if I win 55% of my plays, I will win 110 units after vigorish (1,100 wins minus 900 losses minus 90 vigorish. (110 units @ 1% = 110% profit per year - before compounding.) I appreciate that return on investment. That 110% return on investment is possible because at a 1.1% bet 2,000 times, I am able to invest 2,200% of my original bankroll; - the same money 20 times in a year. The return is actually better with the compounding effect. My brother, J. R., is not a ‘tout’ or 'marketer.' You could ask why he offers his expertise and opinions for sale, and the answer is simple. It's for the same reason Warren Buffet has investors. Why not? All of the work is done, anyway. Selling his picks to you is free money, - and it's a great investment for you, too, (so long as he wins!) As I see it, the internet has presented all of us with the opportunity of a lifetime. I think the key phrase is, "seize the moment." If you've got $5,000 you want to double over the next few months, get my brother's newsletter. Thanks and good luck. - R. J. Miller
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