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sports betting you don't wait for weeks or months to know if your
investment was successful. You get an answer in about three hours.
J.V. Miller is widely recognized
as one of the world’s top sports handicappers.
The New York Times
“The Millers are a small percentage who have made a career out of
gambling…earning all of their income from gambling.”
Business, November 9, 1997
Article: EARNING IT. Life’s a Gamble. A Few People
Make It a Profession
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WALL STREET JOURNAL
“We sought out a few pointers
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focus on four key numbers…”
January 29, 2012
Article: Enjoy the Game, Don’t Lose the Bet
By Staff Writer Matthew Futterman
Could YOU be a Professional Gambler?
The Best Way to Gamble
A Crash Course in Vigorish
Debunking the Kelly criterion
Endorsements & Testimonial
How to Spot Key NFL Pointspreads
How to Spot Positive NFL Situations
Moneyline Conversion Chart
Money Management for Bettors
Why You Should Bet on Sports
Track Us Here
When Lady Luck Turns to Ice
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Betting Systems and Strategies | Tips For Being Successful at Sports Betting
If teams with the best
records won every time, we’d all soon be batting a thousand, the bookies
would be broke, and that would be that.
Many sports handicappers,
when looking for evidence of upcoming winners, remind us of the drunk
crawling around under the streetlight. When the policeman asked the drunk
what he was doing, the drunk answered, "I’m looking for my
The policeman helped him
look for the wallet awhile, then finally asked, "Are you sure you
dropped it here?"
The drunk answered, "No,
I dropped it up the street, but the light’s better here."
handicappers are like that drunk insofar as they don’t want to look for
evidence where it’s difficult to find. They don’t want to tackle the
difficult stats and interpret the tough stuff, so they look wherever "the
light’s better." They cite such nonsense as so-called ‘trends,’ and
other mathematical glitches without a shred of logical explanation. Take a
look at this bit of advice concerning a Monday night game with Dallas
visiting Minnesota. This was published on the internet by a prominent sports
tout as his ‘free pick’ of the week. We won’t publish his name because
there’s no need to be that hostile:
Tip of the Day:
The Dallas Cowboys are
6-1 ATS OVER as Monday Night dogs off a loss. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS OVER their (sic) last 7 games vs Dallas.
We don’t know how many
years you’d have to go back to collect Dallas as a "Monday night dog
coming off a loss" seven times, but we bet it’s plenty. In fact, we
suspect the tout made up those figures out of thin air. It doesn’t matter,
anyway, because what happened 2, 4, 6 or more years ago has nothing at all to
do with what’s happening now. Such reasoning is laughable.
Probably the most
outrageous claims I’ve seen concern the use of the paranormal. We’ve seen at least one tout
claiming to use astrology. If you believe in astrology, my advice is to keep
sports betting only as entertainment; do NOT risk serious money. Check this
advertisement by a guy actually claiming to use biorhythms:
(Tout’s name) analyzes
players (sic) performance (sic) level based on biorhythms.
This somewhat-unique system has produced some amazing results as he is
documented No. 1 in NFL for the last 6 years combined ('93-'98) as documented
by Sports Watch and is also No. 1 in college football as documented by the
Las Vegas Sporting news last year.
be suckered by these wanna-be phonies. If calling winners were as easy as keeping track
of such superficial things as won-lost records, anybody could do it and the
bookmakers would be out of business in no time at all.
One of the most popular forms
of handicapping used by beginners is to spot "trends." For example,
let's say the 49ers are 9-1 against the pointspread the week after playing on
Monday night. That's a "trend," and many non-professionals would
need no more evidence than that to place a bet on the 49ers.
Allow me to cite a parallel. Let's say you have 100
quarters, each of which you flip 10 times, keeping careful track of each
quarter's results, heads or tails. After you've flipped the 100
quarters 10 times each, you will definitely see "trends" in the
"performance" of the individual quarters. In fact, the odds of
going 9-1 (or 1-9) with one or more of the quarters is almost 2-to-one!
Such a 9-1 (or 1-9) "trend" figures to happen
about 2 percent of the time when flipping a coin. That's one time in fifty
trials. For one thing, the first toss can be either heads or tails; it
doesn't matter. It only matters if the following 9 tosses happen to match the
The point is, after tossing 100 quarters 10 times each,
you cannot after the fact look back and think there is special significance
to an individual quarter's performance. Most likely, at least one of the
quarters (probably more than one) has produced 9-1 (or 1-9) results simply
because of the probabilities involved. That particular quarter is no more
likely to continue that "trend" than any of the other
In professional football,
all manner of these types of "trends" can be found to have
happened. Teams can suffer losing streaks of 1-9 after playing in a certain
city, or winning streaks of 9-1 after playing in the same city, teams with
gold jerseys can go 9-1 against teams from west of the Mississippi, teams can
go 9-1 in their "home" uniforms or 9-1 in their "road"
uniforms, and on, and on, and on. You cannot after the fact look back on such
an event and attach significance to it without more substantive supportive
evidence. It's no surprise that such trends occur; it would be impossible for
them not to occur. Trouble is, they are almost always meaningless.
Unfortunately, there are
no shortcuts when it comes to forecasting the outcome of professional
football games. Biorhythms won’t help, astrology won’t help, and what
happened years ago won’t help. When handicapping the NFL you’ve got to
evaluate those stats that are proven to be the most ‘predictive,’ such as
offensive and defensive yards-per-rush, offensive rushing yards gained,
defensive rushing yards allowed, offensive total yards gained, defensive
total yards allowed, etc. In other words, forget about finding some sort of
5-minute magic formula. Effective handicapping begins with the simple
application of common sense.
And common sense dictates
that no mathematical formula nor any other kind of formula will predict
winners as much as 70% of the time against pointspreads. At least 75%-80% of all NFL games
v. pointspreads are decided by sheer luck; a bad bounce, an unlikely
fumble, a miracle interception, a panicky Hail Mary pass, a penalty, or
whatever. That leaves only about 20% that figure to end in a manner
predicted. That 20% and half of the 80% which you figure to win by luck could
possibly give you a 55-59% winning rate, but most probably no more than
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