Check these other pages:
The Best Way to Gamble
Something I Learned
from Sonny Reizner
Handicapping &
Common Sense
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Who the hell
is J. R. Miller?
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A Very Important Thing
to Know
Order
Page
A Good Handicapper...
Bankrupt
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Could
YOU be a pro gambler?
Full time betting is not for everyone, but if you've got
what it takes, it's a great way to live!
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Sample
newsletter
A very important
thing to know Much like investing in stocks, you can't expect to make money
every day at sports betting. Here's what you can expect.
Sports Betting Money Management
R.J. Miller sheds light on the business of sports betting!
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Check our article, Top 10 Ways to LOSE at Sports
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Debunking the
Kelly criterion
If you think progressive betting schemes can win more than you deserve, buy a round-trip
ticket in advance
Test Your Sports
Betting IQ
Use these questions to check your "expert" friends
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When Lady
Luck Turns to Ice Your ability to
handle losing streaks is one of the things that will determine your success as a sports
bettor.
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Key NFL
Pointspreads
Some pointspreads are much more important than
others
A Crash Course In
Vigorish
...And it's NOT 4.55%
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How To Spot NFL 'Positive Universes'
R. J.
Miller tells how to find winning NFL situations!
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Winning Percentages
Resource Page
Track Us HERE
Sample Newsletter
Complimentary pick
The Social Impact of
Gambling
Great Gambling
Stories
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Get this book!
Insights Into Sports Bettor
- Bob McCune
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EMAIL FROM GAMBLERS
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I don’t quite fully understand your
reasoning behind making selections when you figure to lose the bet anyways.
For example, you have taken big underdogs in the past if you think that the
oddsmakers’ estimation of the two teams’ ability is vastly different from
yours. But if you still have the team you are picking to lose the game, why
bother making the bet in the first place? After all, this does not affect
the outcome of the game. So by getting more of an advantage against the
oddsmaker, can you explain how this ends up turning to longer term
winners/profit for yourself despite the fact that you are sometimes making
the bet mainly on contradicting chances of winning?
- Jordan F.
Picture 20 marbles in a sack, 12
black ones and 8 white ones. Call the white ones "winners" and the black
ones "losers". It's obvious that if the goal is to reach into the sack and
pull out a "winner," we have only an 8-out-of-20 chance of winning (40%).
The correct moneyline odds in that case (40%) is +150
that we can pull a white marble from the sack. Over 200 tries, we figure to
win 80 times and lose 120 times. (120 losers X -100 = -12000.....80
winners X +150 = 12000). A moneyline of +150 is a break-even proposition.
Now, suppose the posted moneyline being offered on the
above "game" is not +150, but +200. In such a case, we'd still lose 12000
with 120 losers, but we'd win 16000 with the 80 winners (80 winners X +200 =
16000). Over the 200 pulls, then, we'd figure to make a profit of 4000.
Told in units, at odds of +200, we'd lose 120 units and
make 160 units. That's 40 units' profit on a total of 200 units risked, -
even though we figure to LOSE any given individual "pull" from the sack.
I hope that helps.....Let me know. - J. R.
///
....Do
the offshore books cut you off if you win? I mean, serious money, not 10
bucks a game. - Earl B.
It's more complicated than it looks. In reality, you're not betting against the
book; you're betting against the book's other customers. The idea that large sportbooks
try to precisely balance their risk is a myth. All they need is plenty of action on both
sides. They really have no reason to care who wins and who loses.
If they get $6600 risked on one
side to win $6000, and $4400 risked on the other side to win $4000, they are in the
position of risking only $1600 to win $2600. For you or me to win $2600 we have to risk
$2860........That's quite a hill to climb. Moreover, veteran sportbook managers will spot
you as a 'winner' right away by the way you bet; - they don't have to wait to see whether
or not you're a winner. For example, risking the same amount on all your bets is a tip-off
that you're no amateur. (Only amateurs use such nonsense as the "one-star,
two-star, three-star" system or the so-called "Kelly Criterion.")
That knowledge can be valuable to
the sharp sportbook manager. All he has to do is try to "tilt" the money toward
the same side you're on and HOPE you're a very good handicapper; - that is, in the case of
the $6600 v. $4400 above, the sportbook manager would rather have his $1600 risked
"with" the pros than against them.
///
...Your web site serves as an inspiration to me, it's taught me so much over the
past year. Believe it or not, I just got interested in sports wagering this year. All this
time I’ve been wasting my time with other forms of gambling when sports wagering is
really the only true way of making a buck. I've been tracking your progress since the
beginning of this year and I have to admit I’m very impressed....I will stay tuned to
your website, which by the way is very thorough and informative (if I had to sum it up
TRULY INCREDIBLE). -SR
Hey.....Thanks.
///
You
say check your plays (on your Track Us Here page) as
soon as games go off but you don't post anything until later. What a rip-off. Anybody can
call winners after the games are 2 hours old...You're nothing but a fucking crook...
You're not reloading your page. Hold down your Control button and
click the "refresh" icon at the top of your screen.
All our plays are sent to
subscribers of PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER newsletter hours before the games begin, so we could
not possibly get away with what you're suggesting.
///
...(On your Letters Page) you are getting so many letters praising
you I thought I would add my 2 cents worth...(I ordered PROFESSIONAL
GAMBLER Newsletter) the first week of April and I feel like I am stealing. I bet
$400-$600 per game and I am up right at $25,000 with your help...I keep waiting for the
other shoe to fall... Many thanks...(Do NOT publish my name!) - J. T.
You "got on" at just the right time. Check the chart
near the bottom of our Track Us Here page. We DO have losing
streaks. It is important to keep the size of your bets level. Overconfidence can be a
killer. Thanks for writing.
///
I recently bought your book (How Professional Gamblers
Beat the Pro Football Pointspread) and once again must say thank you
for all of the helpful info. I have a question about (NFL) over/unders.
In your book you say "Consider placing a bet when your own prediction is
three or more of those key numbers away from the posted line; -that is, when
two or more of the numbers 30, 33, 37, 38, 41, 44, 45, 47, 48, or 51 'fit'
between your prediction and the posted line, take a closer look at the bet.
Then, as the posted line gets closer to either 37 or 51, you might consider
being more willing to bet against the move, less willing to bet with the
move". I am having trouble understanding exactly what you mean. I am
trying to learn the gambling lingo and you are right that you guys do have
you own language. What is betting against the move and what do you mean
that I should consider placing a bet when three or more of the key numbers
fit inside of my prediction? I may be just a little slow, but if you could
define what you mean a little more it would really help me out. I bought
Bob McCune's Education of a Sports Bettor
from you web site last night and can't wait to read it. Thanks for all of
your help.
- Bruce S.
Bruce:
By "placing a bet when 3 or more of the key numbers
fit inside your prediction", I mean if the posted total line is,
say, 47.5 and your own predicted total (according to the formula in the
book) is, say, 43, notice that the key numbers 44, 45, and 47 "fit" between
your forecast and the posted line. In other words, the game is very likely
to land on one of those three key numbers, all of which would make your
'under' play a winner, even though your forecast is only 4.5 points away
from the posted line. On the other hand, say the posted total line is 43.5
and your forecast is for the game to end with 38.5 total points. Your
prediction is 5.0 points away from the posted line, but there is only 1 key
number (41) between. Betting the 'under' in this case is riskier, even
though your forecast is 5 points away from the posted line.
To answer your
second question, as the posted total gets closer to either '37' or '51' it
gets 'easier' to beat. If the posted total is, say, 37.0, we often bet the
'over' even though our own prediction is for 38.0, or 37.5, or even 37.0
total points. And against a posted total of '51.0' we often take the 'under'
even though our own forecast might be for 50.0 or 50.5 or even 51.0 total
points. The 'compression' factors talked about in the book come into play as
the posted line gets further and further away from the median total score of
42-43 total points.
I hope this helps. - J. R.
///
You say you don't bet on women's sports. I'll bet you look at women as sex
objects.....Men like you make me sick. Why don't you come into the 21st
century.....? - Lorraine W.
I don't look at ALL women as sex
objects, just the attractive ones.
Of course, I see women as sex objects. Do you have a
better idea? I
intend to see of SOMEthing as sex objects, and I'm totally happy with women.
By the way, what do YOU think of as sex objects (if
any)?.....Just curious.
- J. R.
///
i was just wondering why preseason doesn't matter much in handicapping NHL
games and also what would be the right amount of (NHL) games to wait before
you get the stats you need to start handicapping the NHL season. Thanks
- Anthony S.
We need at
least 4 to 6 games to feel comfortable with our mathematical formulas, but
that doesn't stop us from spotting early anomalies, such as today's line on
the Capitals.
Like
the NFL and NBA, preseason games in the NHL are not for winning; they're for
getting ready to win in the regular season. The coaches' goal is not to win,
but to get ready to win. In preseason games, coaches will use those players
in which they have least confidence in order to assess their ability. There
is little reason to use those players in which the coaches have most
confidence. They will also want to give their most inexperienced players
plenty of ice time, while there's no reason to give their most experienced
players more ice time...Etc, etc..... - J. R.
///
I agree with you about ignoring women sports....Women sports are a complete turn off....Ugh-h-h-h...
- Robert W.
'Nough said.
///
I've been a long time fan of yours and I really enjoy
reading your material. I had a question regarding some legal issues
pertaining to your website. I'm sure you're well aware of the "gray area"
of the whole online thing. My question to you is has anybody given you
slack about dispersing your news letter because of the content? Thanks for
answering my question. I hope you are well. - John
We have
experienced no problems. Sports betting on the internet cannot be regulated
by local laws because bettors are not doing anything locally.
For example, the internet sportbook,
www.canbet.com is a publicly held company in Australia. It's
parent company is on the Australian
Stock Exchange, and here's how it works....
1. It is not illegal to send money to Australia from wherever you are in the
United States.
2. When you place a bet
the bet is placed on Canbet's servers in Australia, not in the U.S. You do not "bet"
on your computer; your bet is placed in Australia.
3. Canbet then credits or
debits your account, which is also in Australia, accordingly. You have done
absolutely nothing in the United States.
I would be interested to know
why you think otherwise? - J. R. Miller
///
In the article your brother wrote about positive universes (NFL
Positive Universes)
he mentions the use of a "field rating".
Firstly, what is a field rating, and secondly
what methods do you use to assign a field value. Thanks for your time...I'm
all ears. - Brendan
"Field rating" is just another word for saying
"home field bias", or "home field advantage". It's the difference between a
team's margin of victory on the road and their margin of victory at home. It
averages about 3.0 points for the NFL as a whole, but varies all the way
from -3.5 points to +13.0 points. The Broncos and the Packers have often had
double-digit home advantages, the Saints and Falcons have often had negative
home advantages. - J. R. Miller
///
In your
newsletter today you wrote, "Nobody ever got rich betting on visiting
favorites in the NBA". Do you find the same situation regarding visiting
favourites in NHL, MLB and NFL? - Regards, Darren B.
In the NFL, years ago, it cost my brother and I
many a Town Car. (LOL.)
The home team against baseball wins about 55% of all games. In the NHL
home teams figure to win slightly more than 56%, and NBA home teams usually
win more than 57% of their games. - J. R.
///
I would be
willing to sign up with a sportsbook/poker room/casino by using the links
that you provide on your website, if you would be willing to refund to me a
per cent of my losses (in effect a rebate to me from your affiliate deal).
Would this be acceptable to you? - Anonymous
We don't do affiliate deals. We do NOT accept
revenues from sportbooks. Our recommendations actually ARE recommendations.
We don't profit from bettors' losses.
- Laurie (customer relations)
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