Check these other pages:
The Best Way to Gamble
Sample
newsletter
Parlays & Profit
Handicapping &
Common Sense
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When Lady
Luck Turns to Ice
Your ability to
handle losing streaks is one of the things that will determine your success as a sports
bettor.
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Something I Learned
from Sonny Reizner
Order
Page
A Crash Course In
Vigorish
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Could
YOU be a pro gambler? Full time betting is not for everyone, but if you've got
what it takes, it's a great way to live!
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A very important
thing to know Much like investing in stocks, you can't expect to make money
every day at sports betting. Here's what you can expect.
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Top 10 Ways to LOSE at Sports
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Debunking the
Kelly criterion
If you think progressive betting schemes can win more than you deserve, buy a round-trip
ticket in advance
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How To Spot NFL 'Positive Universes'
R. J.
Miller tells how to find winning NFL situations!
A Crash Course In
Vigorish
...And it's NOT 4.55%
Winning Percentages
Track Us HERE
Sample Newsletter
Complimentary pick
Who the hell is J. R.
Miller?
The Social Impact of
Gambling
Great Gambling
Stories
A Crash Course In
Vigorish
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Bob McCune on baseball betting
An important article by Bob McCune, adapted
from his classic book, "Revelations
In Sports Betting!"
Sports Betting Money Management
R.J. Miller sheds light on the business of sports betting!
Test Your Sports
Betting IQ
Use these questions to check your "expert" friends
Key NFL
Pointspreads
Some pointspreads are much more important than
others
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Who the hell
is J. R. Miller?
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EMAIL FROM GAMBLERS
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I came across your website and have been having a good time reading all
the articles.
I have a couple questions I hope you can help me with.
First, in your opinion, to be a professional player, what size bankroll must
you have? Should this bankroll size consist of all money you have liquid?
And in your opinion, what are the chances of eventually losing 100% (playing
1% to 2%, and keeping the amount bet the same throughout, of your bankroll
on each individual play) of your entire bankroll?
Second, you mentioned you hit on average 55%-58%
winners. Does this go for all sports, all seasons, for as long as you have
been handicapping sports? So you're saying you have never had a losing
football season, or a losing baseball season, or a losing basketball
season??
I consider myself a very fortunate person. I work for
the greatest company in the world and make a decent living. I have lost,
however, an incredible amount of money wagering on sports. I really wish I
came across your web site earlier. My two main problems were chasing my
losses (always wagering different amounts), and listening to different
people/my own opinions/services and never staying consistent with how I
determined which plays to make. What is your opinion of someone playing
your plays and your plays only?? - Todd C.
Thank you for your interest. Your bankroll should consist of the maximum
amount you are willing to lose in order to prove to yourself if sports
betting is a thing for you. In other words, it doesn't matter if you have
$20,000 if you're only willing to lose, say, $10,000. The size of your bets
must be predicated on the amount you are willing to lose. If you're basing
the size of your bets at 2% of $20,000, but you're only willing to lose
$10,000, you're actually risking 4% of your 'bankroll' per bet. That would
be suicide.
Risking 2% of your beginning bankroll is okay is you
have another income you can live off of. With another income, the main goal
of your sports betting is to make money; however, if sports betting is your
only income the main goal changes. If sports betting is your only income the
main goal is to avoid going broke. Those are two very different goals.
That's why full time gamblers keep their bet size to about 1% or even less.
You cannot plan on beating every sport every season,
and the fact that we expect a long term record equal to winning between 55%
and 58% if we were risking 11 to win 10 doesn't mean we beat every sport
every time. We've had losing NFL seasons, mainly because the NFL offers only
about 240 plays per year. 240 bets are not enough to guarantee success. We
are least likely to have a losing baseball season, simply because the sheer
number of plays guarantees that our record is more likely to end up
as expected. The more plays we have, the more likely we will achieve our
expected win percentage. One baseball season equals about 6 NFL seasons.
- J. R.
///
.....You posted your baseball results from July (A
Very Good Month) on your web site and I congratulate you on such
a great month....I noticed you also bet on (baseball) over-unders, but I
don't believe over-unders can be beat. What is your record
against just baseball over-unders for the year so far (08/02/05)?.... - B. W.
Thank you for your interest in our materials. Please refer to Mr. Miller's
article, What's Your Record,
on this website. - Laurie (customer service)
///
Hello. I wanted to tell you I have been up all
night reading your book (How Professional Gamblers
Beat the Pro Football Pointspread). I have been gambling for 25
years and this is the best thing I have ever read. Great work. Great work.
I am writing about your chapter on beating exhibition
(NFL) games. Can you tell me your record against exhibition games for the
past few years? I have never believed they were possible to handicap, but
your book makes so much sense I am afraid I missed out on a lot of money. -
Terry W.
Thank you for your interest in our materials. Please refer to Mr. Miller's
article, What's Your Record,
on this website. - Laurie (customer service)
///
That system you give in your book (How
Professional Gamblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread).
That's a lot more than pencilling in a score!
I was looking for 'the theme'
for this year, but now it's pretty clear. Calculate my own line for
everything, and establish the ideal parameters against the posted line for
the most profit. In other words, getting deeply into the numbers.
I just checked the Eagles for 2004, after week 4. Just
using your L4 game technique, and not at all adjusting to normal 'football
scores', the Eagles went 12-3-1 O/U! ATS they started out 7-1, then
cooled off to 8-7 (8-5 when not counting the two throwaway games at the end
of the regular season; both of which did win the O/U).
I don't expect the numbers to be as good for the entire
NFL, although you never know, but it should be fun to find out what works
best with the other teams. Thanks for that system! Priceless!
- Alex
LOL.....Hey, that's why they pay me the big bucks. Seriously, I'm very proud
of that book. The system in chapter 2 has worked every year since I
discovered it. Thanks for the nice letter. - J. R.
///
.....It
is impossible to predict over-under scores in baseball...You can't really
beat the book against baseball totals....- Jason T.
A quick run-through of our
Track Us page and our
July Results page shows we
are 34-20-2 v. baseball totals from July 1st through August 10th.
///
.....I
must say I've enjoyed reading the articles on your (website), I feel that
I've learned a lot. I wanted to ask why you (recommend) that a beginner
should not subscribe to the newsletter? I know you say that it is meant for
professionals and successful part-timers, but my concern is that I need tips
from a source I can trust or I won't make any money. Your site is the only
one that I've found who posts their plays after the games start. Are you
suggesting that if I play at 1-2% of my bankroll using plays from the
newsletter and shop for the best lines that I will not profit because I'm a
beginner? Thanks. - Steve
Steve:
Generally
speaking, here are just 5 of the many ways a beginning sports bettor will fail,
even if they subscribe to our newsletter...
1. They won't limit the size of their bets to 2 percent or less of their
bankroll. They are overly optimistic. They are in self-denial that they will
ever lose 12, 13, 14 or more bets in a row, or that they will go, say, 5-25
over any 30-bet stretch. This circumstance leads to risking too much of
their bankroll per bet, which dooms them to failure.
2.
They kid themselves about the real size of their bankroll. Even if they have
set aside, say, $10,000, for sports betting they won't really allow themselves to lose the
entire $10,000. If they lose, say,
$5,000 of that $10,000 they will quit betting, and in that case they never
really had $10,000 to begin with; they only had $5,000. The actual size of
their bets must be related to how much they are willing - and able - to lose
before they quit, not to their net worth. If they make the size of their bets 2 percent of $10,000 but
quit betting after losing $5,000, their bets were twice as big as they
should have been. Their bets were actually 4 percent of the amount they were
willing to lose.
3. They
will risk more on some plays than others. Even pros have more confidence in
some plays than others, which is only natural, but pros know better than to use such nonsense as a
'1-Star, 2-Star, 3-Star' betting system, or the so-called 'Kelly criterion',
or any other kind of progressive betting scheme. Progressive betting schemes
do not work. Anyone touting
progressive betting systems is guaranteed to be a loser.
4. They get emotionally involved in every game. They take every loss
personally, as an affront, and every win contributes to their male ego,
their macho. Losing days
make them angry and/or depressed, winning days make them laughy and
buoyant. Their relationships with family and friends can be affected by
their won-lost record. It's as though they are standing too close to the
forest, concentrating on a single tree, when they should back off so they can
see the forest for what it is. They concentrate on the results from one day,
or one week, rather than on long term results.
5. They get panicky after a losing streak and often try to 'catch up' by
increasing the size of their bets. Or, they get greedy after a winning
streak and try to make a killing by increasing the size of their bets. After
a winning day or a winning week they think they are "in" a winning streak. Unfortunately,
it is NOT possible to know when you are "in" a winning streak (or a losing
streak). You can only know when you've just HAD a winning streak (or a
losing streak), but they won't be convinced of that fact. They often "feel
lucky" after a good day. They simply will not stick to their own money
management rules.
Granted, there
do exist men with not much gambling experience who are smart enough and
disciplined enough to stick with acceptable money management principles, and
I am sure there are also beginning gamblers who are wise enough to stay
emotionally detached from the day's results, but
those men are few and far between. For example, from June 16th through
August 15th, 2005, the plays in our newsletter made a profit of nearly 49
betting units. (You can track us.) Someone
risking 2% of their beginning bankroll per bet would have essentially
doubled their bankroll in those 2 months....But, y'know what? We still had 3
subscribers fail to renew their subscriptions. Maybe there were other
reasons for their failure to renew, such as health problems, but we're
guessing at least one or two of them simply managed to go broke.
///
Greetings from London. The way I always thought of
it...which you're welcome to use to placate your clients if need
be:-)..........is that if you're a legit 56% handicapper (which almost
nobody is, by the way) you've got a big moneymaking jar full of beans. 56
white, and 45 black. Close your eyes and pick a bean. White you win, black
you lose. NOBODY can know that on THIS draw a white or a black will come out
- only that the white is a 56% probability - but anything can happen on any
given draw.
Over the long run, your results are VERY predictable.
In the short term you could VERY easily draw 20 black and 5 white. In fact,
sooner or later you WILL have a run like that, and if you're betting 10% of
your bankroll - or even 5% - you're history. Busted, even while enjoying a
phenomenal advantage. Which is why your advice to bet 1%-2% is so critical.
Even with the magic 56% jar of beans you will, without a doubt, eventually
go broke betting 5%...
...This is yet another reason why FLAT betting is
important...meaning a fixed percentage of your STARTING bankroll...to be
adjusted upwards or downwards only occasionally. Not, say, 2% of whatever
your bankroll happens to be on a given day, adjusted daily. If I start the
season with $100,000, I'll bet $2k a game until the bankroll has
doubled...which under the best of circumstances will take at least a year.
That's why getting rich at sports betting is so unlikely. In order to allow
for the downward swings, you have to bet a small enough percentage that even
winning 40 units a year (which virtually nobody out there can do...a handful
at best), you haven't even doubled your bankroll in a season...involving
hundreds of betting days and a lot of hassle.
At best, it's fairly high-paid fun...unless you're
willing to risk wipe out and bet 5%-7% per game, hoping you won't be there
when the day arrives that 15 out of 20 beans are black.
Anyway, hang in there.....you've got more white beans
in your jar than black, which is more than 99% of the "handicappers" out
there can say.
Best wishes, - Russell Robinson
Thanks, Russell. I needed that. - J. R. (P.S.: We have more than
2,300-2,500 bets per year.)
///
...If you're a professional gambler why do you live in
Tennessee?...
- Austin J.
Because I want to...And so would
you. One of the greatest perks about sports betting is that you can live
anywhere you please. (I also have a place in Las Vegas, and another in Indiana.) - J. R.
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