In a nutshell: "The population of bad handicappers in Tap City is dwarfed by the population of bad money managers." - J. R. Miller

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Something I Learned from Sonny Reizner

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NASHVILLE TENNESSEAN newspaper article

KANSAS CITY STAR newspaper article

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A very important thing to know  Much like investing in stocks, you can't expect to make money every day at sports betting. Here's what you can expect.

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Debunking the Kelly criterion  
If you think progressive betting schemes can win more than you deserve, buy a round-trip ticket in advance

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A Crash Course In
Vigorish
...And it's NOT 4.55%

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EMAIL FROM GAMBLERS

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     Hi, I want to thank you for the wealth of information provided on your website.....I 'm still a student with minimum income and currently I'm on a $4500 bankroll betting $50 a unit. At what level of betting should I consider buying your newsletter? Also, are you considering handicapping WNBA? Isn't the work required for WNBA similar to NBA?.....  - Michael
     First let me say that if you have another source of income you could increase the size of your bet to as much as 2% of your bankroll. If your bankroll is $4500 you could be risking $90 per bet rather than $50. With another source of income, your primary goal right now is to increase the size of your bankroll - to make money - and with an outside income I believe the increased risk of using 2% rather than 1% is acceptable.
    Full time bettors whose only income is from their sports betting have a different primary goal than making money. Their primary goal is to avoid going bankrupt, and that dictates a lower betting amount of about 1% of the bankroll.
    With that said, there are some months our newsletter turns out to be worth the price if you're betting $50 per play, and some months when it doesn't. At $50 per play, we'd have to add 4 winners to your tally or take away 4 losers, or some mix of the two, for you to break even. That's a very subjective call. I'd have to say that $50 would be an absolute minimum size that I would recommend, if that. I feel more comfortable either recommending a bet size of at least $70-$80, or splitting the cost of the newsletter with a friend.
    As for handicapping the WNBA, I have no interest in women's sports. Watching sweaty masculine women play golf or tennis or basketball is my favorite thing after everything else but a toothache.  - J. R. Miller 

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     I have a question for you about creating a line in baseball. i have been creating my own line and comparing it to the posted line. i have been using year to date stats and have been adjusting my line for current form or who is hot. i have noticed on your track us page we have several plays against each other. i usually adjust my line around 10 to 20 cents for current form  in pitching and another 10 to 20 cents for current hitting if needed. it seems to me that you usually only use current stats because your selections are usually on the hot teams of the past couple of days. do you think that I am adjusting my line enough and do you think current form is that much more important than year to date stats.    Thanks.  - Warren
        We put a lot of weight on the last 80-100-or-so innings (9-or-so games), and hardly no weight on what happened more than a month or so ago (except with pitchers). Don't worry too much about finding us on opposing sides. All good handicappers do that. They do it a lot. Some put more emphasis on pitchers than others, or bats, umpires, stadiums, or even errors. It doesn't mean we both can't be "right" over the long haul.
    From your email (above) I suspect I would recommend tracking your plays with less emphasis on old stats (year-to-date), but if you're having success, don't automatically think I'm right. Much depends on the subtle emphasis you're giving to various aspects of the game. The way I weight various aspects of the game may be better suited to more current stats than the way you weight those same aspects. Your way may be better suited to include older stats.    - J. R. Miller 

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     Your comp pik today was Angels +107 at Texas. TX won 18-5. You are really stoooopid.  - A. T.
      Sometimes we feel really stoooopid, alright. - J. R.

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     I've been reading about a betting system called the Kelly criterion. It's being touted by (name of author). When I showed the book to a friend he said to check your website. Can you explain why the Kelly criterion won't work?  - U. B.
      Sure. In fact, we can show you how to prove it for yourself. Check our article, How to Test the Kelly Criterion.

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     I have decided pro sports is all a sham. Why do fans cheer for a team like the (Detroit) Tigers when not a single player on the team is even from Michigan? A lot of baseball players are not even from the United States. Why do fans cheer for a team of foreign strangers?  - U. B.
      Good question. If you want to see a real ball game, check with your local high school. Pro sports ain't about sports at all, it's all about the money...At the high school level it's all about sports. 

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     .....Congratulations on kicking ass the past several days!!! Yesterday put me over the top!!! My bankroll is at a all time high!!! How long do you think you can keep this up?????  - J. W.
     We wish we knew. The trouble with winning streaks is, you can never know when you're IN one, you can only know when you've just HAD one. The important thing to remember now is to keep your bets flat. Avoid the temptation to increase the size of your bets. Trust me, we didn't suddenly get any better at handicapping.

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     I have been tracking you...You are up over 28 units. Is this normal? That would be more than 350 units' profit per year......  -W. C.  
     We wish.....No, that's not 'normal.' We're good, but we're not THAT good. We've just had something of a winning streak.  - J. R.

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     .....I have...tried about all the handicappers and for those people who send you nasty emails when you have a losing streak I can tell them out of all the handicappers I have tried you are the only one who has made me a profit. You...now have (a) permanent customer. Thanks for everything my friend.  - T.F.
     Thanks for the note.  - J. R.

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     Hi, I am interested in subscribing to your service and had a couple questions.
     Do you release your bets at the same time everyday and if so when and by email I assume. How many picks can I expect on average per month and over a year.  Thanks, Karl
     Thank you for your interest. We don't hold our newsletter until a certain time of day. As soon as it's ready we email it. It is usually sent well before 1:00 PM USA Eastern Time, or at least 2 hours before the first games of the day begin. The number of bets vary widely per month. October is our "slowest" month because there are no NBA, NHL or MLB games; only NFL games. We had about 70 plays last October. August is usually one of our "busiest" months because of the high number of baseball games coupled with professional football games. Over a 12 month period we usually have well over 2,100 plays.   - Laurie (customer relations)

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     Ok I would like to order the news letter. I have a question.....Are the picks that you send out "as is" the same plays that you play to make your living. And maybe you could explain to me at what point I should start drawing from my bankroll to live.
     56 % is that over the long run ( Season ) or per week. Cause I settle every week. Hopefully these questions don't sound stupid. Just trying to learn.  - A. X.
     Thank you for your interest in our materials. From your questions, however, it would probably be best if you watched awhile. Our newsletter is tailored for successful part-time sports bettors and for professional-level bettors. We suggest you consider some of the 'How-To' books available on our Order Page, and that you follow the results from our newsletter on our Track Us page. By following our results for awhile you can get a better feel for what to expect from our newsletter. While the cost of our newsletter is negligible for full-time bettors (most pros risk at least $500 per bet), it can be significant to anyone risking less than, say, $75-$80 per bet.
     Our job is to make you money, and we have no interest in costing you money. Another good exercise is to make your plays "on paper" without risking real money, and keeping close track of your historical record. By keeping a bet-by-bet record you can gain a better understanding of the winning and losing streaks you can expect along the way. We DO have losing streaks! We do NOT make money every month. Correct money management is essential to your success. Please consider some of the 'How-To' books on our Order Page.  - J. R. Miller

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     Hello to you.....I just downloaded your report on parlays (How to Profit from Parlays).....I have been a gambler over 20 yrs and I am shocked at what I learned. Your (report) is literally worth its weight in gold. Who knew???  I am going to put what I learned to work today. Thank you thank you thank you.....  - A. K.  
     Thank you for the email. It is interesting the number of sports bettors who don't know parlays can be used both as a defensive weapon and as an offensive weapon. Lots of gamblers think parlays cost too much vigorish, but our article Parlays & Profit proves that's not so.   - J. R. 

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     Hey, JR.  .....Every year about this time the cockroaches come out of the woodwork and I start getting calls from touts to sell me their picks.....I just ask them why they don't post there picks like you do as soon as the games start (Track Us Here).....That puts an end to every phone call. Some of them just hang up immediately, and two of them started cussing me!   LOL     - W. G.  
     There's no reason a sports service can't post their plays as soon as the games begin, like we do at our Track Us page.....Unless, of course, those guys know something about their picks the rest of us don't know.

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     .....I just spent the last hour studying (your report) HOW TO PROFIT FROM PARLAYS. I have to tell you that was the best $19.90 I have ever spent in my life. I have been betting on sports for 12 years and I can't believe what I learned. I intend to put (your advice) to work right away.....  - W. S.
     Hey, thanks for the note. When I first started betting on sports - back in the stone age - everyone warned me that parlays were poor bets...But I kept wondering why bookmakers didn't advertise parlays? If parlays are bad for bettors, why don't bookmakers promote the hell out of them?

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    Well, I read your site and failed to take the advice. I usually bet $100 a game and if I hit a losing streak, I double up on my losses...Tonight I played catch up and lost on the Twins. They weren't favored, but looked good - so I put $300 on them to get just over where I started. The last 2 days have been brutal, but I am thinking about subscribing to your letter soon. My gambling method is reckless, especially when blown saves occur and there is something breakable in the room.
    Great website, I will try to follow J.R. especially during football.  - Keith C.
    It sounds to me like you're about to take a big step toward success with your money management. If you get anything at all from me, I hope it's the part about keeping all your bets level and at no more than 2% of your bankroll. I promise you - I promise you - it will make all the difference in the world over the long haul. - J. R. Miller

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     I noticed that (sportbooks are) starting to carry WNBA spreads. I'm just wondering, are you going to recommend WNBA games at all?...Any thoughts on the game? - J. K.
     I'm such a traditionalist when it comes to the sexes, women playing professional sports just piss me off.....What sport would Marilyn Monroe or Sophia Loren or Suzanne Somers play? To handicap women's sport, just figure out which side is least like women...- J. R.

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Check this article!

Have you ever noticed, bookmakers don't advertise or promote parlays...Why is that? Check this article!

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