In a nutshell:
population of bad
handicappers in Tap City is dwarfed by the population of bad money
- J. R. Miller
Something I Learned
from Sonny Reizner
KANSAS CITY STAR newspaper article
Parlays & Profit
If parlays are bad for bettors, why don't sportbooks promote
A very important
thing to know Much like investing in stocks, you can't expect to make money
every day at sports betting. Here's what you can expect.
We post our plays as soon as games begin
If you think progressive betting schemes can win more than you deserve, buy a round-trip
ticket in advance
A Crash Course In
...And it's NOT 4.55%
EMAIL FROM GAMBLERS
Hi, I want to thank you for the wealth of information provided on your
website.....I 'm still a student with minimum income and currently I'm on a
$4500 bankroll betting $50 a unit. At what level of betting should I
consider buying your newsletter? Also, are you considering handicapping WNBA? Isn't
the work required for WNBA similar to NBA?..... - Michael
First let me say that if
you have another source of income you could increase the size of your bet to
as much as 2% of your bankroll. If your bankroll is $4500 you could be
risking $90 per bet rather than $50. With another source of income, your
primary goal right now is to increase the size of your bankroll - to make
money - and with an outside income I believe the increased risk of using 2%
rather than 1% is acceptable.
Full time bettors whose only income is from their sports betting have a
different primary goal than making money. Their primary goal is to avoid
going bankrupt, and that dictates a lower betting amount of about
1% of the bankroll.
With that said, there are some
months our newsletter turns out to be worth the price if you're betting $50
per play, and some months when it doesn't. At $50 per play, we'd have to add
4 winners to your tally or take away 4 losers, or some mix of the two, for
you to break even. That's a very subjective call. I'd have to say that $50
would be an absolute minimum size that I would recommend, if that. I feel
more comfortable either recommending a bet size of at least $70-$80, or
splitting the cost of the newsletter with a friend.
As for handicapping the WNBA,
I have no interest in women's sports. Watching sweaty masculine women play
golf or tennis or basketball is my favorite thing after everything else but
a toothache. - J. R. Miller
I have a question for you about creating a line in
baseball. i have been creating my own line and comparing it to the posted
line. i have been using year to date stats and have been adjusting my line
for current form or who is hot. i have noticed on your track us page we have
several plays against each other. i usually adjust my line around 10 to 20
cents for current form in pitching and another 10 to 20 cents for current
hitting if needed. it seems to me that you usually only use current stats
because your selections are usually on the hot teams of the past couple of
days. do you think that I am adjusting my line enough and do you think
current form is that much more important than year to date stats.
Thanks. - Warren
We put a lot of weight on the last
80-100-or-so innings (9-or-so games), and hardly no weight on what happened
more than a month or so ago (except with pitchers). Don't worry too much
about finding us on opposing sides. All good handicappers do that. They do
it a lot. Some put more emphasis on pitchers than others, or bats, umpires,
stadiums, or even errors. It doesn't mean we both can't be "right" over the
From your email (above) I suspect I would recommend tracking your plays
with less emphasis on old stats (year-to-date), but if you're having
success, don't automatically think I'm right. Much depends on the subtle
emphasis you're giving to various aspects of the game. The way I weight
various aspects of the game may be better suited to more current stats than
the way you weight those same aspects. Your way may be better suited to
include older stats. - J. R. Miller
Your comp pik today was Angels +107 at Texas. TX won
18-5. You are really stoooopid. - A. T.
Sometimes we feel really stoooopid, alright.
- J. R.
I've been reading about a betting system called the
Kelly criterion. It's being touted by (name of author). When I showed the
book to a friend he said to check your website. Can you explain why the
Kelly criterion won't work? - U. B.
Sure. In fact, we can show you how
to prove it for yourself. Check our article,
How to Test the Kelly Criterion.
I have decided pro sports is all a sham. Why do fans
cheer for a team like the (Detroit) Tigers when not a single player on the
team is even from Michigan? A lot of baseball players are not even from the
United States. Why do fans cheer for a team of foreign strangers? - U. B.
Good question. If you want to see a
real ball game, check with your local high school. Pro sports ain't about
sports at all, it's all about the money...At the high school level
it's all about sports.
.....Congratulations on kicking ass the past several
days!!! Yesterday put me over the top!!! My bankroll is at a all time
high!!! How long do you think you can keep this up?????
- J. W.
We wish we knew. The trouble with winning streaks is,
you can never know when you're IN one, you can only know when you've just
HAD one. The important thing to remember now is to keep your bets flat.
Avoid the temptation to increase the size of your bets. Trust me, we didn't
suddenly get any better at handicapping.
I have been tracking
you...You are up over
28 units. Is this normal? That would be more than 350 units' profit per
wish.....No, that's not
'normal.' We're good, but we're not THAT good. We've just had something of a
winning streak. - J. R.
have...tried about all the handicappers and for those people who send you
nasty emails when you have a losing streak I can tell them out of all the
handicappers I have tried you are the only one who has made me a profit.
You...now have (a) permanent customer. Thanks for everything my friend.
Thanks for the note. - J. R.
Hi, I am interested in subscribing to your service and
had a couple questions.
Do you release your bets at the same time everyday and
if so when and by email I assume. How many picks can I expect on average per
month and over a year. Thanks, Karl
Thank you for your interest. We don't hold our newsletter
until a certain time of day. As soon as it's ready we email it. It is
usually sent well before 1:00 PM USA Eastern Time, or at least 2 hours
before the first games of the day begin. The number of bets vary widely per
month. October is our "slowest" month because there are no NBA, NHL or MLB
games; only NFL games. We had about 70 plays last October. August is usually
one of our "busiest" months because of the high number of
baseball games coupled with professional football games. Over a 12 month
period we usually have well over 2,100 plays. - Laurie (customer
Ok I would like to order the news letter. I have a
question.....Are the picks that you send out "as is" the same plays that you
play to make your living. And maybe you could explain to me at what point I
should start drawing from my bankroll to live.
56 % is that over the long run ( Season ) or per week.
Cause I settle every week. Hopefully these questions don't sound stupid.
Just trying to learn. - A. X.
Thank you for your interest in our materials. From
your questions, however, it would probably be best if you watched awhile.
Our newsletter is tailored for successful part-time sports bettors and
for professional-level bettors. We suggest you consider some of the 'How-To'
books available on our
and that you follow the results from our newsletter on our
page. By following our results for awhile you can get a better feel for
what to expect from our newsletter. While the cost of our newsletter is
negligible for full-time bettors (most pros risk at least $500 per bet), it
can be significant to anyone risking less than, say, $75-$80 per bet.
Our job is to make you money, and we have no interest
in costing you money. Another good exercise is to make your plays "on paper"
without risking real money, and keeping close track of your historical
record. By keeping a bet-by-bet record you can gain a better understanding
of the winning and losing streaks you can expect along the way. We DO have
losing streaks! We do NOT make money every month. Correct money management
is essential to your success. Please consider some of the 'How-To' books on
Page. - J. R. Miller
Hello to you.....I just downloaded your report on
parlays (How to Profit from Parlays).....I
have been a gambler over 20 yrs and I am shocked at what I learned. Your
(report) is literally worth its weight in gold. Who knew??? I am going
to put what I learned to work today. Thank you thank you thank you.....
- A. K.
Thank you for the email. It is interesting the number
of sports bettors who don't know parlays can be used both as a defensive
weapon and as an offensive weapon. Lots of gamblers think parlays cost too
much vigorish, but our article Parlays & Profit
proves that's not so. - J. R.
Hey, JR. .....Every year about this time
cockroaches come out of the woodwork and I start getting calls from touts to
sell me their picks.....I just ask them why they don't post there picks like
you do as soon as the games start (Track Us
Here).....That puts an end to every phone call.
Some of them just hang up immediately, and two of them started cussing me!
LOL - W. G.
no reason a sports service can't post their plays as soon as the games
begin, like we do at our Track Us page.....Unless,
of course, those guys know something about their picks the rest of us don't
.....I just spent the last hour studying (your report)
HOW TO PROFIT FROM PARLAYS. I have to tell you that was the best $19.90 I
have ever spent in my life. I have been betting on sports for 12 years and I
can't believe what I learned. I intend to put (your advice) to work right
away..... - W. S.
thanks for the note. When I first started betting on sports - back in the
stone age - everyone warned me that parlays were poor bets...But I kept
wondering why bookmakers didn't advertise parlays? If parlays are bad for
bettors, why don't bookmakers promote the hell out of them?
Well, I read your site and failed to take the advice. I usually bet $100 a game and
if I hit a losing streak, I double up on my losses...Tonight I played catch up and lost on
the Twins. They weren't favored, but looked good - so I put $300 on them to get just over
where I started. The last 2 days have been brutal, but I am thinking about subscribing to
your letter soon. My gambling method is reckless, especially when blown saves occur and
there is something breakable in the room.
Great website, I will try to follow J.R. especially during
football. - Keith C.
It sounds to me like you're about to take a big step toward
success with your money management. If you get anything at all from me, I hope it's the
part about keeping all your bets level and at no more than 2% of your bankroll. I promise
you - I promise you - it will make all the difference in the world over the long haul. -
J. R. Miller
noticed that (sportbooks are) starting to carry WNBA spreads. I'm just
wondering, are you going to recommend WNBA games at all?...Any thoughts on
the game? - J. K.
I'm such a traditionalist when it comes to the
sexes, women playing professional sports just piss me off.....What sport
would Marilyn Monroe or Sophia Loren or Suzanne Somers play? To handicap
women's sport, just figure out which side is least like women...- J. R.
Emails from Gamblers pages